Pakistan Remittances Hit $3.89 Billion in October as SBP Lifts Forecast to $45 Billion

November 14, 2026

Pakistan remittances in October 2026 reached $3.89 billion, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported on Tuesday, 10 November — a 13.8 per cent rise on the same month last year and the strongest monthly inflow of the current fiscal year so far. Governor Jameel Ahmed now expects Pakistan to receive $45 billion in workers’ remittances in fiscal year 2026–27, up from an earlier estimate of $44 billion.

Remittances are the money Pakistanis working abroad send home to their families — one of Pakistan’s largest and most reliable sources of foreign currency, the dollars the country needs to pay for imports, service foreign debt and keep its currency steady. The October numbers show this lifeline is not just holding up; it is growing.

What the October figures show

October’s $3.89 billion compares with $3.42 billion in October 2025 — growth of 13.8 per cent in a year — and with $3.6 billion in September, so the momentum continued into the autumn rather than fading after the summer.

For July to October — the first four months of fiscal year 2026–27 — total remittances reached $14.8 billion, 14 per cent more than the $13 billion received in the same period a year earlier.

Over the 12 months through October, inflows totalled about $43.4 billion — close to 10 per cent of Pakistan’s entire economic output. Annual remittances have grown from about $16 billion in 2014 to more than $43 billion today, and 2025–26 set a record of more than $41 billion, passing the previous record of $38.3 billion.

Where the money comes from

Saudi Arabia remains the largest single source, sending $981.6 million in October — roughly a quarter of the month’s total. The Gulf states as a group account for roughly 55 per cent of inflows in the July–October period, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates supplying the largest shares.

That reflects where Pakistanis work: millions are employed in the Gulf, in construction, services, transport and domestic work, sending a large share of their earnings home each month. About 10 million Pakistanis live abroad, and their transfers are the financial link between those workers and the households that depend on them. Most of it travels through banks and licensed transfer companies, and the State Bank has pushed hard to keep it in formal channels.

Why the forecast went up

The State Bank raised its projections for remittances and foreign exchange reserves last month, citing stronger-than-expected inflows and an improved outlook for the external account. Governor Jameel Ahmed told a press conference after the monetary policy announcement that inflows had held up during the first quarter of fiscal 2027 and were likely to beat earlier estimates.

“Workers’ remittances are expected to increase further, with Pakistan’s inflows projected at $45 billion in the current fiscal year, up from the previous estimate of $44 billion,” the Governor said.

Hitting $45 billion needs about $30.2 billion over the remaining eight months — roughly $3.8 billion a month, only slightly below October’s pace. Topline Research is nearly as optimistic, projecting $44.7 billion for fiscal 2026–27.

The forecast matters because remittances now do much of the heavy lifting for Pakistan’s external finances: at a trailing 12-month level of about $44 billion, analysts estimate they cover nearly all of the country’s external financing deficit. One portfolio manager at East Capital, quoted in recent coverage, called them “Pakistan’s oil”.

The wider economic picture

The strong remittance figures arrive at a delicate moment for Pakistan’s economy. The central bank has been fighting an inflation upswing tied to higher global energy prices and the conflict in the Middle East. On 26 October, it raised its benchmark policy rate by 50 basis points to 12 per cent, with nine of the ten members of its Monetary Policy Committee in favour. Headline inflation was 10.3 per cent in September, well above the central bank’s medium-term target range of 5 to 7 per cent.

Against that background, the inflows give the central bank room to breathe. The State Bank projects imports of about $71 billion this fiscal year against exports of $32.5 billion to $33 billion, and expects the current account deficit to stay between zero and 1 per cent of GDP. Remittances are the main reason that gap is so small: they fill most of the hole left by imports exceeding exports.

Foreign exchange reserves have also recovered sharply, growing nearly fivefold since 2023, when they covered only about 1.5 months of imports and Pakistan came close to defaulting on its international bonds. Inflation has fallen from a peak of 38 per cent to single digits, though it has recently risen again.

The State Bank has also been tightening the rules around cash and digital payments as part of the same push to bring money into formal channels — it recently raised the cash reporting threshold to Rs3 million, and has been asked to prepare a merchant discount rate scheme for Raast QR payments as digital-payment merchants pass 2 million.

What this means

For families receiving money from abroad, the support they depend on is growing, and the central bank expects that to continue. For Pakistan’s economy, $3.89 billion in a month is a powerful cushion: it covers most of the trade gap, supports the rupee, and gives the State Bank room to manage inflation. For banks, sustained inflows mean more deposits and more customers using their transfer services. And the upgraded $45 billion forecast is a vote of confidence in overseas Pakistanis’ earnings — though hitting it needs inflows near $3.8 billion a month for the rest of the year, and any sharp fall in Gulf employment or a new energy shock could still test that optimism.